Advancing International cooperation for carbon emission reductions

Miami, 13 March 2009

“Advancing International cooperation for carbon emission reductions”
Miami-Florida EU Centre Spring Conference – FIU

Security Implications of Climate Change

1. Climate Change – what science tells us

– Climate change is certainly one of the most and probably the most important of global challenges facing humanity.

Even if many more people now are understandably more preoccupied by losing their jobs and by economic hardship, climate change [CC] could easily have much more lasting effects than the current economic crisis for most of us and for our children. Security related implications appear already a considerable part of CC lasting effects.

The global scientific community and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) of the UN stipulate that:

1. Climate change is occurring and is attributable to human activity (anthropogenic) and the production of greenhouse gases.
2. An average rise of 2 degrees Celcius in global temperature represents the utmost limit under which we could still manage the implications of climate change. Surpassing this 2 degrees threshold would result in a precarious situation where climate change would have unforeseen consequences and possibly aggravating itself with further uncontrollable consequences. For example: the melting of North Pole ice blocks, not only contributes to sea level rising globally, but also releases gazes which aggravate CC.

3. In some respects, worse case scenarios predicted by science only a few years ago have been surpassed and could exacerbate international insecurity. For example:
o Polar ice is melting three times faster than expected.
o Adverse effects are already being felt in many areas, including in agriculture and food security; oceans and coastal areas; biodiversity and ecosystems; water resources; human health; human settlements; energy, transport and industry; migration, and in extreme weather events.
o It is already clear that the Arctic, sub-Saharan Africa, small island States, low-lying ecosystems and water resources, as well as agricultural production in certain regions are at particular risk.

2. Security implications

Most of the adverse effects mentioned above, beyond a certain threshold of intensity, can become real security concerns. For example: increased drought in some parts of the world is becoming severe and is having already a visible impact on conflicts and frictions among nations and peoples, including in the middle East. Indeed climate change security implications are overwhelmingly recognised already:
 According to the United Nations (UN), all but one of its 2007 emergency appeals for humanitarian aid where climate related.
 The 2007 UN Security Council debate on the impact of climate change on peace and security led by the United Kingdom (UK), had limited success because of the reservations from many developing countries, including China, which saw climate change as a socio-economic development issue,
 A study by a group of US generals recognizes that climate change has serious security implications and came to define climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’.
 Several follow up studies have helped the global community understand climate change security implications better and move the discussion forward.

– Overall the security implications of the CC are fully recognised beyond doubt by any serious study undertaken these last years.

– The next step, which remains to be achieved, is to transform this increased understanding of CC impact into adequate and efficient policy making.

3. Security policy

The climate change challenge and particularly its security dimension is an unprecedented test:
 For the world:
o it is an unprecedented call for governance and multilateralism to develop internal, bi-lateral, regional and global climate change policy.
 For the EU-US relationship we need to :
o Broaden the scope of common thinking about security threats and develop clear, agreed and effective policy frameworks to address climate change and related aspects of international security.
o Deepen the dialogue on security and climate change and include the climate change dimension in the EU-US dialogue structure.

The IISS Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security launched on 25/2/2009 will hopefully encourage the inclusion of a much more comprehensive concept of security related to CC in /the formal EU-US dialogue thus positively promoting the advancement of national, bilateral and international climate change policies.

4. The European Position

We must collaborate to both mitigate climate change and to prepare for adaption to its inevitable consequences. Concerted action by governments worldwide is necessary on both these levels.

On Mitigation, the global debate centres around the post-2012 Kyoto regime and the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations on climate change. The EU considers that
 Global, binding long-term and medium-term emission reduction targets must be established
 A reliable and credible global cap-and-trade system is key to reaching the objectives
 In Europe, legally compulsory targets have already been (or are in the process of being) introduced in European legislation (20-20-20).
 While the United States has expressed at the highest level of government its climate change mitigation commitment, the final position at the Copenhagen negotiating table is still unclear
 What worries me most about those in the US refusing to sign a treaty with compulsory targets, is that they have up to now failed to present an alternative solution that would be equally
o Convincing and credible about meeting emission reductions targets
o Clear and transparent to the world public opinion.
Both conditions are essential for convincing a number of hesitant nations to commit to the global climate change effort.

On Adaptation, the EU is taking important initiatives within its borders and in its relations with third countries, particularly the developing countires. Some important initiatives are included the Road Map presented below.

5. The EU Process of incorporating CC Security implications into policy-making

We will see now:
– the process of incorporation of CC in the European Security Strategy
-the activities foreseen in the European Roadmap on Climate Change and International Security
– some of the achievements to date
– some of the activities planned for 2009.

5.1. Climate change in the European Security Strategy

o In 2003, the European Security Strategy (ESS) included already climate change as one of the upcoming security challenges of the 21st century.
o In 2006-07 the following three major reports highlighted the far reaching consequences of climate change: The
o 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC);
o Stern Review (2006) that examined the economics of climate change;
o German Advisory Council, Global Change Report on Climate Change as a Security Risk (2008).
o A multitude of studies analysing the security implications of climate change followed.
o These studies and reports have since fuelled the elaboration of further analysis, additional conferences, international events and workshops.
o The European Council’s conclusions of June 2007 invited the High Representative and the European Commission to produce a Joint Report on Climate Change and International Security that was released on March 14th 2008.
o Consequently, climate change was featured prominently by Javier Solana, High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy in the report on the implementation of the European Security Strategy and was submitted to the European Council on December 10th 2008.

o A European Roadmap for the implementation of the Joint Report was then developed by the European Commission and the Council SEC . This prepared the ground for further action until the end of 2009.
o

5.2. EU Climate Change Road Map: main activities foreseen:

i. Consult with other partner countries
 Exchange information
 Develop joint approaches;

ii. Assess EU capacities and resources and identify financial implications;

iii. Further integrate adaptation and resilience to climate change into EU regional
strategies, develop an EU Arctic policy and consider environmental migration in
European immigration policy;

iv. Conduct further studies, [CCI moving target] and on region specific risks, threats
and impacts of climate change;

v. Intensify EU capacities for research, analysis, monitoring and early warning
systems
 Enhance international cooperation on the detection and monitoring of security threats related to climate change, and on the prevention, preparedness, mitigation and response to crisis;

vi. Debate the issue within the Political and Security Committee (PSC) and further
build up EU and member state planning and capabilities;

vii. Focus attention on security risks related to climate change in the multilateral
arena and consult with agencies and bodies dealing with security and crisis response
on different levels, including civil society;

viii. Examine the security implications of climate change in dialogue with third
countries and build upon the Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) – an alliance
between the EU and poor developing countries that are most affected and that have the
least capacity to deal with climate change, which aims to assist the most vulnerable
countries in the prevention of and their preparedness for natural disasters ;
ix. Consider strengthening certain rules of international law, namely the Law of the
Sea;

5.3. Other Concrete EU steps undertaken

o A number of projects have been tendered within the Seventh Framework Research Program (FP7). The G-MOSAIC , launched on January 1st 2009 will explicitly focus on developing crisis indicators and monitoring systems for population pressure, land degradation and related issues;
o The European Commission published the Communication on the “European Union and the Arctic Region” and is a central step towards developing a European Arctic policy (COM (2008) 763 final).
o

5.4. Next Steps: 2009 Dual Approach

Aim
Building on the activities above, the Dual Approach aims to further
o Deepen the knowledge about climate change and security and;
o Policy dialogue with various stakeholders to increase awareness and place the issue high on the international agenda.

Specific Activities will include:
o Conducting regional scenarios from early 2009 till late November 2009, on a number of selected regions, namely South-West Asia, continental South-Asia, and the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States, along a common format;
o Holding consultations:
• Within the framework of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in late February 2009 in Cambodia (Phnom Penh)
• With UN agencies in New York in late March 2009.
• With the Organisation of Security in Europe (OSCE)
• The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and its member states
o Participating in, and contributing to conferences and events on climate change and international security organized by member states and actors. Major conferences tentatively planned include the:
• Joint Swedish Defence and Research Agency & Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency and related Swedish governmental bodies conference planned under the Swedish Presidency in fall 2009
• Danish government in the Levant region is tentatively scheduled for March 2009
• The Nordic Governments summit with sub-Saharan African counterparts in spring 2009.
• The organisers of these events have expressed interest to liaise with the EU institutions.
o Merging the key findings and results of both the regional scenarios and policy dialogues with third countries into a report that will guide EU
• Future international negotiations;
• Country programming and
• Strategic planning

6. The EU Climate and Energy Package

6.1. Unsustainable energy trends

The International Energy Agency demonstrated in its World Energy Outlook for 2008 that current energy trends are unsustainable, environmentally, economically and socially. It presented concrete and far reaching recommendations. A global energy revolution needs to be launched to increase energy efficiency, enhance energy security and contribute to the fight against climate change.

6.2. The package

In order to deal with both the Climate and the Energy challenges, the global economy must rapidly gear towards a low-carbon model. In these efforts, the Climate and Energy Package passed by the EU has confirmed Europe’s commitment to transforming itself into a low-carbon economy, helping business opportunities arise in the direction of the desired new industrial revolution.

The Climate and Energy Package, improves energy efficiency, boosts renewable energy, creates means for carbon capture and storage, and strengthens the Emission Trading System.

What happens now? The EC and other EU institutions and Member States will now have to ensure that the plan is rightfully implemented throughout the Union. A revised emission trading system will be developed by 2013 while the possibility of ‘carbon leakage’ must be studied, in case a global agreement on climate change cannot be found.

The EU also considers it an imperative that other States follow in these footsteps and is hopeful that the Copenhagen negotiation that will take place this December will help the world move towards this direction. Although the new Obama administration is more receptive about the urgency of climate change combat, and other nations have demonstrated positive initiatives (China, India, Brazil), the negotiations will not be easy.

6.3. All countries all sectors

An important message form the work done in this area is that the full potential of the emissions reductions will have to be reached through the agreement in Copenhagen if the global mitigation effort is to be successful in keeping the temperature rise below the 2 degrees target.
The outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations must be global and comprehensive and include mitigation efforts by all countries with the exception of the poorer ones. It must also include a comprehensive plan for key emitting sectors, in fact all significant sectors.

6.4. The crucial issue of finance

To build the sustainable global energy system the EC proposed that 0.2% of global GDP per year be invested for this goal, equivalent to 175 billion Euros a year, of which more than half will be deployed to aid developing countries through this transition.
Although public funding will certainly be part of the solution, appropriate structures and mechanism will have to be put in place to trigger necessary private investment, as well as innovative international sources of finance. In this regard the EC hopes to create an OECD-wide international carbon market by 2015, in route of a global cap and trade system. The needs of the developing countries are considerable and the issue of finance will certainly be one of the most difficult points of the negotiation process leading to Copenhagen.

6.5. The need to accelerate the development and deployment of new technologies

The development of new, clean energy technologies requires that funding for research be dramatically increased. The EC recommends that spending be doubled back to 1980s levels and then doubled again by 2020. This fast deployment will be supported by the enabling regulatory measures which must be taken immediately.

6.6. An economic opportunity

As the Commission Communication on our road to Copenhagen set out, there is a vast potential to reduce global emissions at zero or even negative costs, simply by improving energy efficiency. The consulting firm McKinsly recently found that by 2030, the equivalent of today’s emissions from the US and China combined could be avoided at no cot to the economy (reference 113).Of course there will be a cost to cutting global emissions, but this cost is far below the long-term cost of not taking action, which Lord Stern’s review has estimated at between 5 and 20% of global GDP each year (ref. 113).

Overall, the package will be a “shot in the arm of the economy” as it will boost jobs and innovation towards new and green technology, similar to a green New Deal, which could actually help the EU come out of the current recession as it is reinforced by the EC Economic Recovery Plan.

It is estimates that renewable energy will bring 130 billion Euros investment by 2020 and create 700,000 new jobs since renewable energies are actually more labour intensive than oil and gas (reference 112). This will of course result in a lower energy security threat, and gas and oil imports will be 50 billion a year lower in 2020.

7. Conclusions:

1st Conclusion: CC is a challenge and an opportunity

The current economic crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity for countries and the international community:
 The challenge is obvious: it has certainly the potential to become the most important challenge that humanity will face in the XXI century and is aggravated by global recession and the resulting constrained economic and financial context ( however, at the same time, the initial estimates of the cost of mitigation and adaptation at around 0.5% of GDP now look derisory compared with the impact of the financial and economic crisis)
 An opportunity because:
o The stimulus packages, aimed at fighting the consequences of the economic crisis and particularly the parts concerning the increasing public investment, economic restructuring, energy security and renewable energy, can be used to bolster a greener economy;
o The need to combine the stimulus with a greener economy is widely recognised;
o To reach EU 20/20/20 CO2 emission reductions goals, and particularly the long term ones of more than 50% by 2050, a green revolution is required.
o We are entering a new era, new technologies and modification of production and consumption patterns as well as of lifestyle are required, which might mark the period from now to 2050 as a new era in history, a new threshold for humanity.
o The Security implications of climate change, as well as the mitigation efforts increase global interdependence to new heights and require novel levels of multilateralism, regional and bilateral cooperation
o Within the global economic interdependence and efforts to foster prosperity, the winners of the future will be the nations that will evolve quicker towards the green mentality, the green technologies and the overall green economy of the future.
o The path towards the future has to be seen as an opportunity. The transition towards the green economy is a win-win solution, in Europe as elsewhere, as it can not only contribute to stopping the dire consequences of greenhouse gas emissions, but it can at the same time have a positive overall impact on the economy, while also increasing European competitiveness and alleviating the continent from energy security constraints.

2nd Conclusion: The transatlantic dimension is a key for the future

Because the security implications of CC are extremely important: as such they need to be better incorporated in the EU-US formal structure of dialogue [otherwise they will not be treated properly

We thus need a new partnership in order to:
o Work on the level of multilateralism needed
o Better coordinate and cooperate bilaterally particularly on the security implications of CC : effective planning, monitoring, crisis prevention and management, peace building, resources, sharing of effort and of burden. [see Barroso’s request from Harvard speech] as such on the basis of a more comprehensive definition of security.

Improvements but still a long way to go:
o We have a long impressive list of increased coordination initiatives with UN and many other partners
o With the US a lot of good will and we are working to turn those into concrete results
o But nothing can work multilaterally without sufficient coherence between EU and US

Overall, the EU and the US need to do better both globally and bilaterally to reach proper global mitigation results and enhance efforts of adaptation incorporating and both levels of policy making a coherent view and understanding of the Security Consequences of CC. Copenhagen is probably our last chance, before serious aggravations of the CC challenge, to translate the climate change security threats from international awareness to concrete global concerted action.
In this challenging process it is important to recognize the enormous size of both the obvious challenges involved but also of the opportunities that lie underneath these challenges.